After skipping out on Underworld: Rise of the Lycans, Kate Beckinsale rejoins the enduring vampires vs. werewolves franchise for the series’ fourth installment, which, thanks in part to the presence of 3D, should outdo the $20.8 million that Lycans opened with in 2009. The three Underworld installments’ average opening weekend stands at $23.1 million, and their average domestic total at $53.4 million. Thanks to 3D ticket prices, those numbers may creep up a little bit, but at this point in the franchise, uninitiated viewers aren’t going to suddenly check out what Underworld is all about. In 3,078 theaters, Underworld: Awakening may scare up $24 million. more than enough for a top spot finish. Cuba Gooding Jr. and Terence Howard headline the wartime actioner Red Tails which tells the story of the Tuskegee Airmen and their much overlooked contribution to World War II. Tracking for "Red Tails" isn’t very strong, but time and time again, movies that play well with African-American audiences have had deceptively low tracking scores — that may be why Fox is predicting only an $8-10 million weekend. I, however, think "Red Tails" may pull in an impressive $19 million from 2,512 locations, resulting in a second place finish. Mark Wahlberg’s thriller Contraband broke out last weekend, but due to heavy competition, it may fall by about 50% this time around. A $12.5 million weekend would land the film in third place. After five weeks in limited release, the Tom Hanks/Sandra Bullock adaptation Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close will expand from 6 theaters into 2,630 theaters on Friday, and while it will certainly get a huge box office boost as a result, I’m doubtful that it will truly break out. Difficult subject matter will keep many away. The film deals with the aftermath of 9/11, a touchy plot that many moviegoers will simply not want to explore in theaters. In addition, reviews have been harsh. All that being said, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" is based on a popular novel by Jonathan Safran Foer, which means there is a built-in audience here, and its gotten a strong advertising push, which features a few choice rave reviews. I’m predicting an $11.5 million weekend, landing in fourth place. Disney's Beauty and the Beast 3D should fare well since there is nothing new opening that is appropriate for little kids. A 35% dip would give the animated hit roughly $11 million in fifth place. In case action audiences are not satisfied with other new releases or holdovers, there is the spy thriller Haywire opening starring Mixed Martial Arts superstar Gina Carano headlining her first motion picture. Reviews have been among the best in recent months for a non-ghost protocol action title. But competition will be intense given the two other action titles opening on Friday and weekend grosses should be hampered by Sunday's football. Channing Tatum, Michael Douglas, and Antonio Banderas may co-star, but none will add too much to the box office since this is a Gina vehicle. Maybe some love for Soderbergh will factor in. Opening in over 2,000 theaters, Haywire could debut to about $9 million, just outside the Top 5. Plus: After eight weekends in limited release, Golden Globes Best Picture (Musical or Comedy) winner The Artist will also expand into 662 theaters this weekend, and the film may draw about $3 million as a result. Check back Sunday for the complete Top 10.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Box Office Preview: "Underworld Awakening'" should top the charts
After skipping out on Underworld: Rise of the Lycans, Kate Beckinsale rejoins the enduring vampires vs. werewolves franchise for the series’ fourth installment, which, thanks in part to the presence of 3D, should outdo the $20.8 million that Lycans opened with in 2009. The three Underworld installments’ average opening weekend stands at $23.1 million, and their average domestic total at $53.4 million. Thanks to 3D ticket prices, those numbers may creep up a little bit, but at this point in the franchise, uninitiated viewers aren’t going to suddenly check out what Underworld is all about. In 3,078 theaters, Underworld: Awakening may scare up $24 million. more than enough for a top spot finish. Cuba Gooding Jr. and Terence Howard headline the wartime actioner Red Tails which tells the story of the Tuskegee Airmen and their much overlooked contribution to World War II. Tracking for "Red Tails" isn’t very strong, but time and time again, movies that play well with African-American audiences have had deceptively low tracking scores — that may be why Fox is predicting only an $8-10 million weekend. I, however, think "Red Tails" may pull in an impressive $19 million from 2,512 locations, resulting in a second place finish. Mark Wahlberg’s thriller Contraband broke out last weekend, but due to heavy competition, it may fall by about 50% this time around. A $12.5 million weekend would land the film in third place. After five weeks in limited release, the Tom Hanks/Sandra Bullock adaptation Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close will expand from 6 theaters into 2,630 theaters on Friday, and while it will certainly get a huge box office boost as a result, I’m doubtful that it will truly break out. Difficult subject matter will keep many away. The film deals with the aftermath of 9/11, a touchy plot that many moviegoers will simply not want to explore in theaters. In addition, reviews have been harsh. All that being said, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" is based on a popular novel by Jonathan Safran Foer, which means there is a built-in audience here, and its gotten a strong advertising push, which features a few choice rave reviews. I’m predicting an $11.5 million weekend, landing in fourth place. Disney's Beauty and the Beast 3D should fare well since there is nothing new opening that is appropriate for little kids. A 35% dip would give the animated hit roughly $11 million in fifth place. In case action audiences are not satisfied with other new releases or holdovers, there is the spy thriller Haywire opening starring Mixed Martial Arts superstar Gina Carano headlining her first motion picture. Reviews have been among the best in recent months for a non-ghost protocol action title. But competition will be intense given the two other action titles opening on Friday and weekend grosses should be hampered by Sunday's football. Channing Tatum, Michael Douglas, and Antonio Banderas may co-star, but none will add too much to the box office since this is a Gina vehicle. Maybe some love for Soderbergh will factor in. Opening in over 2,000 theaters, Haywire could debut to about $9 million, just outside the Top 5. Plus: After eight weekends in limited release, Golden Globes Best Picture (Musical or Comedy) winner The Artist will also expand into 662 theaters this weekend, and the film may draw about $3 million as a result. Check back Sunday for the complete Top 10.
After skipping out on Underworld: Rise of the Lycans, Kate Beckinsale rejoins the enduring vampires vs. werewolves franchise for the series’ fourth installment, which, thanks in part to the presence of 3D, should outdo the $20.8 million that Lycans opened with in 2009. The three Underworld installments’ average opening weekend stands at $23.1 million, and their average domestic total at $53.4 million. Thanks to 3D ticket prices, those numbers may creep up a little bit, but at this point in the franchise, uninitiated viewers aren’t going to suddenly check out what Underworld is all about. In 3,078 theaters, Underworld: Awakening may scare up $24 million. more than enough for a top spot finish. Cuba Gooding Jr. and Terence Howard headline the wartime actioner Red Tails which tells the story of the Tuskegee Airmen and their much overlooked contribution to World War II. Tracking for "Red Tails" isn’t very strong, but time and time again, movies that play well with African-American audiences have had deceptively low tracking scores — that may be why Fox is predicting only an $8-10 million weekend. I, however, think "Red Tails" may pull in an impressive $19 million from 2,512 locations, resulting in a second place finish. Mark Wahlberg’s thriller Contraband broke out last weekend, but due to heavy competition, it may fall by about 50% this time around. A $12.5 million weekend would land the film in third place. After five weeks in limited release, the Tom Hanks/Sandra Bullock adaptation Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close will expand from 6 theaters into 2,630 theaters on Friday, and while it will certainly get a huge box office boost as a result, I’m doubtful that it will truly break out. Difficult subject matter will keep many away. The film deals with the aftermath of 9/11, a touchy plot that many moviegoers will simply not want to explore in theaters. In addition, reviews have been harsh. All that being said, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" is based on a popular novel by Jonathan Safran Foer, which means there is a built-in audience here, and its gotten a strong advertising push, which features a few choice rave reviews. I’m predicting an $11.5 million weekend, landing in fourth place. Disney's Beauty and the Beast 3D should fare well since there is nothing new opening that is appropriate for little kids. A 35% dip would give the animated hit roughly $11 million in fifth place. In case action audiences are not satisfied with other new releases or holdovers, there is the spy thriller Haywire opening starring Mixed Martial Arts superstar Gina Carano headlining her first motion picture. Reviews have been among the best in recent months for a non-ghost protocol action title. But competition will be intense given the two other action titles opening on Friday and weekend grosses should be hampered by Sunday's football. Channing Tatum, Michael Douglas, and Antonio Banderas may co-star, but none will add too much to the box office since this is a Gina vehicle. Maybe some love for Soderbergh will factor in. Opening in over 2,000 theaters, Haywire could debut to about $9 million, just outside the Top 5. Plus: After eight weekends in limited release, Golden Globes Best Picture (Musical or Comedy) winner The Artist will also expand into 662 theaters this weekend, and the film may draw about $3 million as a result. Check back Sunday for the complete Top 10.
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