FINAL Oscar Predictions

Here they are: All my final Oscar predictions! Everyone enjoy the show and I will be back after with a wrap-up of the festivities.

Best Picture: The Artist



The Academy has changed the rules so often in the Big Race -- Best Picture -- that it's easy to get confused whether there are 5, 10 or any number of nominations in this race. This year, it all depended on the number of votes each film obtained in the nomination process. (The magic number was 5%) The voting for the actual winner is also done by the infamous preferential process, ensuring that one film shares the majority of votes. In any case, there are a few films you can easily eliminate off the top, since they fought to get in this race in the first place. The overall support for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close is astounding, but the film has lost significant buzz since its' release, and the nomination is its win this year. Support was strong for War Horse and The Tree of Life, especially for the latter, since it also appears in the directing race But let's call a spade a spade and admit it: these two films won't have the support for the big win. Moneyball had good support overall, getting nominated in the Lead Actor race, but even if there were 5 nominations this year instead of 9, it probably wouldn't have made the Oscar shortlist. Midnight in Paris, The Descendants, Hugo and The Help probably would have been in the Top 5, but the latter, starring Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer, looks unlikely for the win, lacking the much-needed Best Editing nod for the win. The one film with support across all guilds and precursors is The Artist, which will be Oscar's golden darling this Sunday. It's all wrapped up folks: The Artist could sweep in a big way, and it will all culminate with this Big Win on Sunday night.

Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"



The nominees for Achievement in Directing greatly reflect the recent shortlist provided by the Directors Guild of America, except Terrence Malick snuck into the Directors race here for his work on The Tree of Life, leaving David Fincher with no nod this year for The Girl with the Drago Tattoo. While some consider Malick to be a genius in his personal directing style, he clearly holds the fifth slot in this race, so his chances of pulling off a win are slim. In addition, Alexander Payne should consider his nod for The Descendants his win, since not much buzz has built for the previous Oscar winner. (He has a statue for his screenplay work for Sideways.) Woody Allen is always a Hollywood favorite, but he stands a better shot of a screenplay win for his witty and downtrodden script for Midnight in Paris. The directors with the best shot of winning here are Martin Scorsese for Hugo or Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist. With Scorsese's win very recent in Oscar voters' memory, and The Artist grabbing a menagerie of precursor support (not to mention Hazanavicius' DGA win), The Artist should pull Hazanavicius to a fairly easy first Oscar win.

Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"



The most difficult race to predict this year is Actor in a Leading Role. Demián Bichir scored a surprise nomination for A Better Life, which will count as his win during the Oscar race. Similarly, Gary Oldman snuck into the race for his role in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. Never having been nominated before, many in the industry felt that he was due for a nod. Brad Pitt, superb in Moneyball, likely won’t win this year either, having been passed over twice in his career. That leaves two men in a horse race to the finish: George Clooney was nominated for his role in The Descendants and has earned a Golden Globe win (for Drama) and a Critcis Choice win. In addition, he also has the support of Hollywood behind him. Jean Dujardin, so brilliant in The Artist, won accolades from Globes (Musical/Comedy, SAG and BAFTA.) While Clooney was the early frontrunner, things have slowly started turning in Dujardin’s favor. On Oscar night, it will be a close vote, although we’ll never really know how close it was. My gut says Clooney could win, but Dujardin could get swept up in love for The Artist and find himself holding Oscar by the time the night ends

Best Actress: Viola Davis, "The Help"



All season long it has been repeated over and over through the many mentions of Oscar predictions: Meryl vs. Viola. It has all come down to this. One thing we can all count on: While she was nominated for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Rooney Mara won’t be able to snag an Oscar from her first nomination. Glenn Close has celebrated her sixth career nod, but her role as the title character in Albert Nobbs will cause her tro suffer another loss. Another year, Glenn. Michelle Williams, who won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy for My Week with Marilyn, will stumble in the last leg of the competition. Why? As I mentioned, it has all come down to Meryl vs. Viola. Meryl Streep gave a wonderful performance in The Iron Lady, but the movie was called mediocre at best. However, Streep snagged the Golden Globe for Drama, also earning a BAFTA a few weeks ago. Viola Davis snagged a win at Critics Choice and SAG. It’s neck and neck folks. However, while the British fully embraced Streep’s performance as Margaret Thatcher, I feel here in the States it wasn’t as loved by the masses. In the night’s second hottest race, it will be close, but I think Viola Davis will get awarded for her wonderful turn in The Help, resulting in two African Americans from the same film wining in the same year.

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"

The Supporting races at this years Academy Awards are turning out to be sure things in the matter of who will take home the gold. Of the two races, this way is even more of a sure thing: Christopher Plummer will win his first Oscar for his performance in Beginners. If anyone may come close, it may be Max von Sydow who scored a surprising nomination for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, but even that seems like a long shot. Longer shots also include (but not limited to): Jonah Hill, a first time nominee for Moneyball, who represents youth in this category; Kenneth Brangh for his role in My Week with Marilyn; and Nick Nolte in the largely overlooked Warrior. Plummer deserves the win, not only because it’s the best of the five performances, but also because the man should have the title Oscar winner next to his name. After sixty-plus years in the business as one of its best performers and a class act, to see Plummer on the Kodak Theatre stage grasping a golden trophy will surely be one of the highlights of the evening.

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, "The Help"

While I hate to call anything related to the Oscars a done deal, this certainly feels like it could be. Bérénice Bejo scored a first-time nomination for her silent portrayal of Peppy Miller in The Artist. With so much emphasis on precursor wins, the fact Bejo has scored none keeps her out of contention here. In fact, all the precursors led to losses for Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), and Jessica Chastain (The Help). Instead of prolonging the inevitable, let’s just call it now: Octavia Spencer will win Best Supporting Actress on Oscar night. Any other win here would be a shock at this point in the race. If a surprise does occur, it will probably be for McCarthy’s hilarious role in the popular comedy Bridesmaids. But it won't happen folks: It’s all over but the acceptance speech as Octavia Spencer nabs her first Oscar win.