Friday, March 02, 2012

Box Office Preview: “The Lorax” will make green this weekend


Only a couple of new films are hitting theaters this weekend, but one has the potential to generate some strong box office mojo. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax is well-positioned to take first place and may even lead by more than a two-to-one margin over its closest competitor. The brand is powerful and while the story may not rank among the top two or three tales from the celebrated children's book author, it is popular enough to lure in a large audience. Parents who grew up on Dr. Seuss will be more than happy to stay and sit through the film too. Plus extra high ticket prices from the 3D and IMAX screens will help boost the numbers. Reviews have been decent and the film carries some starpower from its voice cast which includes Danny DeVito, Betty White, Zac Efron, and Taylor Swift. Droppig into 3,600 theaters, “The Lorax” could open to a cool $45 million in first place. Project X is also debuting, and it’s a new spin on the found footage genre, which previously focused on sci-fi. The R-rated film about a group of high school kids who host a house party that gets wildly out of control will play mainly to the under-25 set as well as to older folks who are still young at heart. This may seem like a similar marketing strategy compared to another recent film: Fox's Chronicle bowed to $22 million a month ago but that carried a PG-13 rating that opened the doors to a larger audience of younger teens and earned great reviews. “Project X” rolls into more than 3,000 theaters and could take in about $18 million this weekend, enough for a second place finish. Last weekend, the military actioner Act of Valor seized control of the box office and earned big numbers in the process. But the film barely grew from Friday to Saturday indicating an upfront audience so the second weekend may see a reasonable decline. “Act of Valor” might fall by 45% to about $13 million, landing it in third place. As the only major family film in theaters for the past three weeks, Journey 2: The Mysterious Island has held up incredibly well, dropping just 27% and 33% its second and third weekends, respectively. But now it has to contend with "The Lorax," which should push Journey 2‘s decline to around 40%, resulting in a fourth place finish with $8 million. Tyler Perry's Good Deeds should round out the Top 5 with $6.5 million.

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